STATISTICAL REVIEW: Carlisle United 4-2 Iron

Introduction

Scunthorpe United fell to a 4-2 defeat to Carlisle at Brunton Park on Bank Holiday Monday.

Miguel Azeez fired the hosts into a 1-0 lead before Jordan Richards pulled one back for the Iron around the 30-minute mark.

Regan Linney, Josh Williams, and Junior Luamba then put the game out of sight for Carlisle, but not before a Ross Barrows consolation goal for Scunthorpe.

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Attack

Despite the scoreline, Scunthorpe actually won the xG battle, racking up a stunning 4.48 to Carlisle’s 3.93.

Essentially, this means Scunthorpe should have scored more than four goals on Monday based on the quality of chances.

The Iron managed 18 shots with eight hitting the target on Monday afternoon.

Adam Desbois put in a heroic display in net for Carlisle. He denied Hugh Parker in the 27th minute for a chance worth 0.61 xG.

Declan Howe went close for Scunthorpe after half-time, with shots worth 0.39 and 0.56 xG, before Ross Barrows got the Iron a more than well-deserved second in the final ten minutes with 0.49 xG.

52% of Scunthorpe’s chance value came through the centre, with 27% down the left and 21% down the right.

Defence

Louis Jones made eight saves from 12 shots faced in net for Scunthorpe on Monday afternoon.

Scunthorpe’s PPDA (passes per defensive action) in the final two-thirds of the pitch was 10.4, meaning a defensive action arrived roughly every ten Carlisle passes. That was a busier press than Carlisle managed themselves, at 12.1.

Scunthorpe recoveries totalled 92 against Carlisle’s 100, with 31 interceptions and 17 clearances compared to 42 and 30 for the home side.

Captain Will Evans led the way in the air for Andy Butler’s side, winning 11 of his 12 aerial duels, more than any other player on the pitch

Possession

Scunthorpe had 49% of possession across 347 passes at 76% accuracy, close to Carlisle's 51% and 78%. 

The away side had slightly more progressive passes in the game too, with 55 of 80 completed (69%), ahead of Carlisle’s 36 of 55 (65%), and 39 of 53 passes reached the final third (74%) against the home side's 52%.

Set pieces

Scunthorpe won five corners to Carlisle’s six, with two resulting in a shot against the home side’s five.

The Iron completed nine of their 16 crosses, with Luke Brennan supplying four of them despite only coming on in the 75th minute.

Players

Ross Barrows was a standout for Scunthorpe at the right side of a back-three, playing the full 90 minutes, scoring, and winning three of his five defensive duels.

Declan Howe made an impact off the bench for the Iron too, having two of the highest-value chances without scoring (0.39 and 0.56 xG).

Harvey Bunker carried Carlisle’s highest individual expected-goals return (0.84 across headers and shots) and also provided an assist.

Conclusion

Despite the scoreline, to rack up an xG of 4.48 at Brunton Park is very impressive, and all signs point to improved attacking play for the Iron.

All eyes now point to Saturday’s home clash with Harrogate.

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